These change every single day, especially as I get to meet with new people to change my perspectives. As of February 1st, 2026.
What Gets Rebuilt from Scratch
Business Models Built on Outcomes
The shift from selling software to guaranteeing results. Insurance rethought as outcomes-as-a-service. Companies that eat their own downside and get paid when things actually work. When you align incentives this tightly, the entire stack gets rebuilt from scratch.
AI Meets Biology
Drug discovery is just the start. The real unlock is when AI can navigate the messy, slow feedback loops of actual biology. Clinical trials, regulatory processes, patient outcomes. Computational biology that doesn't just predict molecules, but understands how to shepherd them through the entire gauntlet to patients.
Reinforcement Learning That Actually Learns Like Humans Do
Current RL is clever but still narrow: models learning from thumbs up/down. The real frontier is multi-modal, where agents learn through sight, sound, touch, and consequences in messy real-world environments.
This is where psychometrics and social science become the bottleneck, not compute. Understanding how humans actually learn, what motivates behavior, and how reward structures shape decision-making… that's the unlock.
What Stays Stubbornly Human
In Real Life (IRL) & Offline
Concert venues, dinner parties, book clubs, third places that aren't Starbucks. Digital tools should make physical experiences better, not replace them. People building infrastructure for real-world gathering, not just optimizing for screen time, are where I pay attention.
People Operating at the Edge
Founders who've done something weird before building their startup. Extreme athletes turned founders. To me, through-line isn't pedigree, but instead, pattern recognition from unusual vantage points. I'm love spotting high-potential people before the credentials catch up.
Where Humans Choose Humans (Even When AI Could Do It)
Live music. Bartenders who remember your order. Coaching, therapy, spiritual guidance. The consumer economy is splitting into two: things we'll gladly automate, and experiences we'll pay more for because a human is involved. The second category is underinvested and fascinating.
What We Can't Measure Yet
Talent Data for a World Where Judgment > Knowledge
Traditional signals are decaying fast. Years of experience, pedigree, even technical skills where anyone, and AI, can learn those now. What matters: judgment under ambiguity, taste, synthesis, how someone thinks when there's no clear answer.
But we have no good way to measure this just yet. I'm excited about new primitives for evaluating potential over credentials, data that captures decision-making patterns rather than résumé line items. Applications in hiring, community curation, team formation.
